The 86th Academy Awards: My Hopes and Predictions

The 86th Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards are voted on by the 6,000 or so members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. In late December, members are sent a list of eligible releases, and from those they decide their nominations. Actors vote for actors, directors for directors, and so forth except for certain categories like Best Picture or Foreign Film. For Best Picture all members can vote. Then once the nominees are determined, a second round of voting takes place, and this time every member gets to vote for pretty much every category.

I am not in the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (though I did attend the Academy of Hard Knocks, so watch out suckas!!), and thus I don’t get a vote. But dammit, I want to! Good thing I have a website.

Below you will find a list of all the Academy Award categories, the corresponding nominees, my vote for who I hope wins, as well as my prediction of who will win. (See that’s my little way of covering my bases: if my predictions are right, I win. If my favorites win, I win. Winning is everything, right?)

 

Best Picture

Oscar StarAmerican Hustle Oscar StarGravity Oscar StarPhilomena
Oscar StarCaptain Phillips Oscar StarHer Oscar Star12 Years a Slave
Oscar StarDallas Buyer’s Club Oscar StarNebraska Oscar StarThe Wolf of Wall Street

My Hope: The Wolf of Wall Street all the way. The story presents us with a seemingly average man who climbs to the top of the economic ladder all the while falling to the lowest rungs of human decency and morality. The audience is strapped in for the entire wild and excessive and funny and disgusting ride. Leonardo DiCaprio and Jonah Hill give some of the best performances of their lives.

My Prediction: 12 Years a SlaveI think the Best Picture fight comes down to 12 Years a Slave versus Dallas Buyer’s Club. Slavery vs. AIDS. Whereas slavery has been a well-traversed topic in cinema, the pharmaceutical aspect of the AIDS epidemic hadn’t really been explored all that much in film. Both are the most “important” movies nominated. Still I’m going to predict that the academy gives it to 12 Years because it just feels like the heavier of the two movies, the one that evokes a stronger reaction in the audience. Plus stylistically it’s hands above DBC.

My Write-In: Rush, for all the reasons I list in my review here.

Actor in a Leading Role

Oscar StarChristian Bale (American Hustle)
Oscar StarBruce Dern (Nebraska)
Oscar StarLeonardo DiCaprio (Wolf of Wall Street)
Oscar StarChiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Oscar StarMatthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyer’s Club)

My Hope: Leonardo DiCaprio. As far as I’m concerned Leo delivered his most memorable and enjoyable performance in The Wolf of Wall Street. No brainer.

My Prediction: Matthew McConaughey. (Does the fact I don’t think Leo will win best actor mean I’m implying the academy has no brain? Possibly.)  I think this one is also between  12 Years a Slave versus Dallas Buyer’s Club. I’m predicting McConaughey to win because I think 12 Years will win best pic and the academy will want to spread the love. That means I could easily see these two awards reversed with Ejiofor winning best actor and Dallas winning best pic. Either way, both actors gave stunning performances, even if I found Ejiofor’s to be the more captivating of the two.

Actress in a Leading Role
Oscar StarAmy Adams (American Hustle)
Oscar StarCate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Oscar StarSandra Bullock (Gravity)
Oscar StarJudi Dench (Philomena)
Oscar StarMeryl Streep (August: Osage County)

My Hope and My Prediction: Cate Blanchett. Easily the most mesmerizing performance on the list. Cate transformed herself into someone completely new as Jasmine, someone completely coming off their hinges. It was fascinating to watch her fall apart and try to fix her life. My second place hope would be Amy Adams. She gave a convincing and engaging turn as a small time con artist turned police stooge with some identity issues.

Actor in a Supporting Role
Oscar StarBarkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Oscar StarBradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Oscar StarMichael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Oscar StarJonah Hill (Wolf of Wall Street)
Oscar StarJared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

My Hope: Michael Fassbender. He was absolutely detestable as Solomon Northrop’s slave owner. Still there’s something likable, or perhaps just noteworthy of Fassbender. I hated him but I liked watching him.

My PredictionJared LetoThis seems like a slam dunk. He had the biggest transformation out of any of these actors and completely delivered, coming very close to stealing the movie from McConaughey.

Actress in a Supporting Role
Oscar StarSally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Oscar StarJennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Oscar StarLupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
Oscar StarJulia Roberts (August: Osage County)
Oscar StarJune Squibb (Nebraska)

My Hope: Jennifer Lawrence. What a great little performance she delivered. Sometimes I get to thinking about Jennifer Lawrence as that Hunger Games girl, and I forget how great of an actress she is, especially after her overrated performance Silver Linings Playbook. But before all that she was magnificent in Winter’s Bone, and I think she went back to showing some of that in American Hustle.

My Prediction: Lupita Nyong’o. Based on the movie-related podcasts I listen to and everything I’ve been reading, Lupita is a shoe in. I thought she was good in the movie, but her performance didn’t stick with me at all. If I ever do watch 12 Years a Slave again I’ll make sure to pay more attention to her scenes.

Best Animated Feature Film
Oscar StarThe Croods
Oscar StarDespicable Me 2
Oscar StarErnest and Celestine
Oscar StarFrozen
Oscar StarThe Wind Rises

My PredictionFrozen. This may be the first year that I haven’t seen a single animated film at the theaters, but I’d have to be blind not to see how well Frozen has done and how much people are loving it. That doesn’t necessarily translate to academy acclaim, but unlike the likely runner up, Despicable Me 2, this isn’t a sequel, so it’s probably got a better shot.

Cinematography
Oscar StarThe Grandmaster
Oscar StarGravity
Oscar StarInside Llewyn Davis
Oscar StarNebraska
Oscar StarPrisoners

My Hope and My PredictionGravityIt easily had some of the best camera work of any movie all year. I also really enjoyed some of the cinematography in Prisoners, and would be happy if it won too.

Costume Design
Oscar StarAmerican Hustle
Oscar StarThe Grandmaster
Oscar StarThe Great Gatsby
Oscar StarThe Invisible Woman
Oscar Star12 Years a Slave

My Hope: The Great Gatsby. This one had a great amount of style and pizzazz, and everything about it looked great, including the costumes.

My PredictionAmerican Hustle. I predict this because it had a lot of funky 70’s clothing and because I’ve been pretty much shutting it out of most of the award categories.

Directing
Oscar StarAmerican HustleDavid O’Russell
Oscar StarGravityAlfonso Cuarón
Oscar StarNebraska – Alexander Payne
Oscar Star12 Years a SlaveSteve McQueen
Oscar StarThe Wolf of Wall StreetMartin Scorsese

My Hope: The Wolf of Wall Street – Martin Scorsese. Okay, it wasn’t a perfect movie, and it might have been too long, but it says a lot that at 3 hours I never felt bored and could have spent even more time in the world that Scorsese, DiCaprio and writer Terence Winter created.

My Prediction: Gravity – Alfonso Cuarón. I think this may be a long shot, and that Steve McQueen is probably the safe bet, but maybe I’m hoping the academy will recognize the dedication it took for Cuarón to get this film made and how amazing it was once it was done.

Documentary Feature
Oscar StarThe Act of Killing
Oscar StarCutie and the Boxer
Oscar StarDirty Wars
Oscar StarThe Square
Oscar Star20 Feet from Stardom

My Prediction: 20 Feet from Stardom. I haven’t seen any of these documentaries in full; I watched about half of The Act of Killing after hearing so much about it, but it wasn’t all that riveting to me. I’m choosing 20 Feet from Stardom based on Brad Brevet’s opinion (Brad is the host of the Rope of Silicon podcast) and the fact that it just won Best Documentary at the Independent Spirit Awards.

Film Editing
Oscar StarAmerican Hustle
Oscar StarCaptain Phillips
Oscar StarDallas Buyers Club
Oscar StarGravity
Oscar Star12 Years a Slave

My Hope and My PredictionGravity. So there seems to be a pattern that the movie that wins Film Editing is likely to win the Best Picture, and since I think the Best Pic is going to 12 Years a Slave, it makes more sense to bet on that, but I’m just going with a hunch. Not that Gravity is by any means a long shots. Some sources have it as a front runner.

Documentary Short Subject
Oscar StarCaveDigger
Oscar StarFacing Fear
Oscar StarKarama Has No Walls
Oscar StarThe Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Oscar StarPrison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

My PredictionThe Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life. I haven’t seen any of these shorts, but I’ve heard this one, about the oldest living Holocaust survivor, is a sure thing.

Foreign Language Film
Oscar StarThe Broken Circle Breakdown
Oscar StarThe Great Beauty
Oscar StarThe Hunt
Oscar StarThe Missing Picture
Oscar StarOmar

My Prediction: The Hunt. Because this is the only one I saw.

My Write-In: Blue is the Warmest Color. Just a really good movie, that does its best to give an honest depiction of relationships.

Makeup and Hairstyling
Oscar StarDallas Buyer’s Club
Oscar StarJackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
Oscar StarThe Lone Ranger

My PredictionDallas Buyer’s Club. It’s cool that Jackass got a nom here; Johnny Knoxville looked amazing in his old man get-up, but I think this goes to the “important” film again.

Music - Original Score
Oscar StarThe Book Thief
Oscar StarGravity
Oscar StarHer
Oscar StarPhilomena
Oscar StarSaving Mr. Banks

My Hope and My Prediction: Her. While I can’t say I particularly remember the score to this, I do recall enjoying the mood that the music created. Plus I’m a fan of the band Arcade Fire, who composed much of the score.

Music - Original Song
Oscar Star“Happy” from Despicable Me 2
Oscar Star“Let It Go” from Frozen
Oscar Star“The Moon Song” from Her
Oscar Star“Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

My Prediction“Let It Go” from FrozenI haven’t heard this song, but I’ve heard enough about Frozen’s music to think this has the best shot. “Happy” is a fairly decent song, though a little repetitive.

Production Design
Oscar StarAmerican Hustle
Oscar StarGravity
Oscar StarThe Great Gatsby
Oscar StarHer
Oscar Star12 Years a Slave

My Hope: Her. I loved the world that Spike Jonze and his production team made. I wanted to live in Theodore’s future city and play his video games and use his computers.

My PredictionThe Great Gatsby. They created some amazing sets and pieces for this, particularly Gatsby’s digs. The party scenes were a blast to watch.

Short Film - Animated
Oscar StarFeral
Oscar StarGet a Horse!
Oscar StarMr. Hublot
Oscar StarPossessions
Oscar StarRoom on the Broom

My Prediction: Get a Horse! I haven’t seen any of these, so I’m just going by good old Brad Brevet.

Short Film - Live Action
Oscar StarAquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)
Oscar StarAvant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)
Oscar StarHelium
Oscar StarPitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
Oscar StarThe Voorman Problem

My Prediction: The Voorman Problem. See above.

Sound Editing
Oscar StarAll is Lost
Oscar StarCaptain Phillips
Oscar StarGravity
Oscar StarThe Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Oscar StarLone Survivor

My Hope: All is Lost. Based on my (somewhat limited) research, Sound Editors are responsible for creating all the sounds you hear in a film from scratch, aside from the score and dialogue.  I distinctly remember how good the sound was in this one.

My Prediction: Gravity. I was thinking that All is Lost might actually have a shot at winning this, but reading around has got me changing my mind. It just seems like an easy bet that most academy members will just give these technical awards to the deserving Gravity.

Sound Mixing
Oscar StarCaptain Phillips
Oscar StarGravity
Oscar StarThe Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Oscar StarInside Llewyn Davis
Oscar StarLone Survivor

My Hope: Inside Llewyn Davis. Sound Mixers determine which sounds, created by the sound editors, will be used in the film, and they are responsible for putting it all together. The use of music and sounds in Llewyn Davis was incredible. It was a sheer aural delight. And I just learned that all the music in the movie was recorded live on set. Impressive

My Prediction: GravityIt’s not often that the Sound Editing and Sound Mixing awards are split, and Gravity did make good use of sound also. So I’ll just play it safe.

Visual Effects
Oscar StarGravity
Oscar StarThe Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Oscar StarIron Man 3
Oscar StarThe Lone Ranger
Oscar StarStar Trek Into Darkness

My Hope and My Prediction: Gravity. This is easily Gravity’s to lose.

Writing - Adapted Screenplay
Oscar StarBefore Midnight, Written by Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
Oscar StarCaptain Phillips, Screenplay by Billy Ray
Oscar StarPhilomena, Screenplay by Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
Oscar Star12 Years a Slave, Screenplay by John Ridley
Oscar StarThe Wolf of Wall Street, Screenplay by Terence Winter

My HopeThe Wolf of Wall Street, Screenplay by Terence Winter.

My Prediction: 12 Years a Slave, Screenplay by John Ridley. Pretty much because of everything I’ve said about this already. It would be pretty cool though if Philomena won. It was a really sweet and heart warming story.

Writing - Original Screenplay
Oscar StarAmerican Hustle, Written by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Oscar StarBlue Jasmine, Written by Woody Allen
Oscar StarDallas Buyers Club, Written by Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack
Oscar StarHer, Written by Spike Jonze
Oscar StarNebraska, Written by Bob Nelson

My Hope and My PredictionHer, Written by Spike Jonze. I think this is a battle between Her and American Hustle, with the former already having won the Writers Guild of America prize over the latter. Plus American Hustle was a bit confusing at times, which might be a sign of less than stellar writing. Crossing my fingers big time for Spike Jonze

You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.

Leave a Reply