Tell me a story

The Academy Awards are voted on by the 6,000 or so members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. In late December, members are sent a list of eligible releases, and from those they decide their nominations. Actors vote for actors, directors for directors, and so forth except for certain categories like Best Picture or Foreign Film. For Best Picture all members can vote. Then once the nominees are determined, a second round of voting takes place, and this time every member gets to vote for pretty much every category.

I am not in the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (though I did attend the Academy of Hard Knocks, so watch out suckas!!), and thus I don’t get a vote. But dammit, I want to! Good thing I have a website.

Below you will find a list of all the Academy Award categories, the corresponding nominees, my vote for who I hope wins, as well as my prediction of who will win. (See that’s my little way of covering my bases: if my predictions are right, I win. If my favorites win, I win. Winning is everything, right?)

American Hustle	Gravity	Philomena
Captain Phillips	Her	12 Years a Slave
Dallas Buyer’s Club	Nebraska	The Wolf of Wall Street

My Hope: The Wolf of Wall Street all the way. The story presents us with a seemingly average man who climbs to the top of the economic ladder all the while falling to the lowest rungs of human decency and morality. The audience is strapped in for the entire wild and excessive and funny and disgusting ride. Leonardo DiCaprio and Jonah Hill give some of the best performances of their lives.

My Prediction: 12 Years a Slave. I think the Best Picture fight comes down to 12 Years a Slave versus Dallas Buyer’s Club. Slavery vs. AIDS. Whereas slavery has been a well-traversed topic in cinema, the pharmaceutical aspect of the AIDS epidemic hadn’t really been explored all that much in film. Both are the most “important” movies nominated. Still I’m going to predict that the academy gives it to 12 Years because it just feels like the heavier of the two movies, the one that evokes a stronger reaction in the audience. Plus stylistically it’s hands above DBC.

My Write-In: Rush, for all the reasons I list in my review here.

Christian Bale (American Hustle)
Bruce Dern (Nebraska)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Wolf of Wall Street)
Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave)
Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyer’s Club)

My Hope: Leonardo DiCaprio. As far as I’m concerned Leo delivered his most memorable and enjoyable performance in The Wolf of Wall Street. No brainer.

My Prediction: Matthew McConaughey. (Does the fact I don’t think Leo will win best actor mean I’m implying the academy has no brain? Possibly.)  I think this one is also between  12 Years a Slave versus Dallas Buyer’s Club. I’m predicting McConaughey to win because I think 12 Years will win best pic and the academy will want to spread the love. That means I could easily see these two awards reversed with Ejiofor winning best actor and Dallas winning best pic. Either way, both actors gave stunning performances, even if I found Ejiofor’s to be the more captivating of the two.

Amy Adams (American Hustle)
Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine)
Sandra Bullock (Gravity)
Judi Dench (Philomena)
Meryl Streep (August: Osage County)

My Hope and My Prediction: Cate Blanchett. Easily the most mesmerizing performance on the list. Cate transformed herself into someone completely new as Jasmine, someone completely coming off their hinges. It was fascinating to watch her fall apart and try to fix her life. My second place hope would be Amy Adams. She gave a convincing and engaging turn as a small time con artist turned police stooge with some identity issues.

Barkhad Abdi (Captain Phillips)
Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Michael Fassbender (12 Years a Slave)
Jonah Hill (Wolf of Wall Street)
Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club)

My Hope: Michael Fassbender. He was absolutely detestable as Solomon Northrop’s slave owner. Still there’s something likable, or perhaps just noteworthy of Fassbender. I hated him but I liked watching him.

My Prediction: Jared Leto. This seems like a slam dunk. He had the biggest transformation out of any of these actors and completely delivered, coming very close to stealing the movie from McConaughey.

Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine)
Jennifer Lawrence (American Hustle)
Lupita Nyong’o (12 Years a Slave)
Julia Roberts (August: Osage County)
June Squibb (Nebraska)

My Hope: Jennifer Lawrence. What a great little performance she delivered. Sometimes I get to thinking about Jennifer Lawrence as that Hunger Games girl, and I forget how great of an actress she is, especially after her overrated performance Silver Linings Playbook. But before all that she was magnificent in Winter’s Bone, and I think she went back to showing some of that in American Hustle.

My Prediction: Lupita Nyong’o. Based on the movie-related podcasts I listen to and everything I’ve been reading, Lupita is a shoe in. I thought she was good in the movie, but her performance didn’t stick with me at all. If I ever do watch 12 Years a Slave again I’ll make sure to pay more attention to her scenes.

The Croods
Despicable Me 2
Ernest and Celestine
Frozen
The Wind Rises

My Prediction: Frozen. This may be the first year that I haven’t seen a single animated film at the theaters, but I’d have to be blind not to see how well Frozen has done and how much people are loving it. That doesn’t necessarily translate to academy acclaim, but unlike the likely runner up, Despicable Me 2, this isn’t a sequel, so it’s probably got a better shot.

The Grandmaster
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Prisoners

My Hope and My Prediction: Gravity. It easily had some of the best camera work of any movie all year. I also really enjoyed some of the cinematography in Prisoners, and would be happy if it won too.

American Hustle
The Grandmaster
The Great Gatsby
The Invisible Woman
12 Years a Slave

My Hope: The Great Gatsby. This one had a great amount of style and pizzazz, and everything about it looked great, including the costumes.

My Prediction: American Hustle. I predict this because it had a lot of funky 70’s clothing and because I’ve been pretty much shutting it out of most of the award categories.

American Hustle – David O’Russell
Gravity – Alfonso Cuarón
Nebraska – Alexander Payne
12 Years a Slave – Steve McQueen
The Wolf of Wall Street – Martin Scorsese

My Hope: The Wolf of Wall Street – Martin Scorsese. Okay, it wasn’t a perfect movie, and it might have been too long, but it says a lot that at 3 hours I never felt bored and could have spent even more time in the world that Scorsese, DiCaprio and writer Terence Winter created.

My Prediction: Gravity – Alfonso Cuarón. I think this may be a long shot, and that Steve McQueen is probably the safe bet, but maybe I’m hoping the academy will recognize the dedication it took for Cuarón to get this film made and how amazing it was once it was done.

The Act of Killing
Cutie and the Boxer
Dirty Wars
The Square
20 Feet from Stardom

My Prediction: 20 Feet from Stardom. I haven’t seen any of these documentaries in full; I watched about half of The Act of Killing after hearing so much about it, but it wasn’t all that riveting to me. I’m choosing 20 Feet from Stardom based on Brad Brevet’s opinion (Brad is the host of the Rope of Silicon podcast) and the fact that it just won Best Documentary at the Independent Spirit Awards.

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
12 Years a Slave

My Hope and My Prediction: Gravity. So there seems to be a pattern that the movie that wins Film Editing is likely to win the Best Picture, and since I think the Best Pic is going to 12 Years a Slave, it makes more sense to bet on that, but I’m just going with a hunch. Not that Gravity is by any means a long shots. Some sources have it as a front runner.

CaveDigger
Facing Fear
Karama Has No Walls
The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life
Prison Terminal: The Last Days of Private Jack Hall

My Prediction: The Lady in Number 6: Music Saved My Life. I haven’t seen any of these shorts, but I’ve heard this one, about the oldest living Holocaust survivor, is a sure thing.

The Broken Circle Breakdown
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Missing Picture
Omar

My Prediction: The Hunt. Because this is the only one I saw.

My Write-In: Blue is the Warmest Color. Just a really good movie, that does its best to give an honest depiction of relationships.

Dallas Buyer’s Club
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger

My Prediction: Dallas Buyer’s Club. It’s cool that Jackass got a nom here; Johnny Knoxville looked amazing in his old man get-up, but I think this goes to the “important” film again.

The Book Thief
Gravity
Her
Philomena
Saving Mr. Banks

My Hope and My Prediction: Her. While I can’t say I particularly remember the score to this, I do recall enjoying the mood that the music created. Plus I’m a fan of the band Arcade Fire, who composed much of the score.

“Happy” from Despicable Me 2
“Let It Go” from Frozen
“The Moon Song” from Her
“Ordinary Love” from Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

My Prediction: “Let It Go” from Frozen. I haven’t heard this song, but I’ve heard enough about Frozen’s music to think this has the best shot. “Happy” is a fairly decent song, though a little repetitive.

American Hustle
Gravity
The Great Gatsby
Her
12 Years a Slave

My Hope: Her. I loved the world that Spike Jonze and his production team made. I wanted to live in Theodore’s future city and play his video games and use his computers.

My Prediction: The Great Gatsby. They created some amazing sets and pieces for this, particularly Gatsby’s digs. The party scenes were a blast to watch.

Feral
Get a Horse!
Mr. Hublot
Possessions
Room on the Broom

My Prediction: Get a Horse! I haven’t seen any of these, so I’m just going by good old Brad Brevet.

Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me)
Avant Que De Tout Perdre (Just Before Losing Everything)
Helium
Pitääkö Mun Kaikki Hoitaa? (Do I Have to Take Care of Everything?)
The Voorman Problem

My Prediction: The Voorman Problem. See above.

All is Lost
Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lone Survivor

My Hope: All is Lost. Based on my (somewhat limited) research, Sound Editors are responsible for creating all the sounds you hear in a film from scratch, aside from the score and dialogue.  I distinctly remember how good the sound was in this one.

My Prediction: Gravity. I was thinking that All is Lost might actually have a shot at winning this, but reading around has got me changing my mind. It just seems like an easy bet that most academy members will just give these technical awards to the deserving Gravity.

Captain Phillips
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Inside Llewyn Davis
Lone Survivor

My Hope: Inside Llewyn Davis. Sound Mixers determine which sounds, created by the sound editors, will be used in the film, and they are responsible for putting it all together. The use of music and sounds in Llewyn Davis was incredible. It was a sheer aural delight. And I just learned that all the music in the movie was recorded live on set. Impressive

My Prediction: Gravity. It’s not often that the Sound Editing and Sound Mixing awards are split, and Gravity did make good use of sound also. So I’ll just play it safe.

Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
The Lone Ranger
Star Trek Into Darkness

My Hope and My Prediction: Gravity. This is easily Gravity’s to lose.

Before Midnight, Written by Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke
Captain Phillips, Screenplay by Billy Ray
Philomena, Screenplay by Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope
12 Years a Slave, Screenplay by John Ridley
The Wolf of Wall Street, Screenplay by Terence Winter

My Hope: The Wolf of Wall Street, Screenplay by Terence Winter.

My Prediction: 12 Years a Slave, Screenplay by John Ridley. Pretty much because of everything I’ve said about this already. It would be pretty cool though if Philomena won. It was a really sweet and heart warming story.

American Hustle, Written by Eric Warren Singer and David O. Russell
Blue Jasmine, Written by Woody Allen
Dallas Buyers Club, Written by Craig Borten & Melisa Wallack
Her, Written by Spike Jonze
Nebraska, Written by Bob Nelson

My Hope and My Prediction: Her, Written by Spike Jonze. I think this is a battle between Her and American Hustle, with the former already having won the Writers Guild of America prize over the latter. Plus American Hustle was a bit confusing at times, which might be a sign of less than stellar writing. Crossing my fingers big time for Spike Jonze